Solar DSM compliance, end to end.
A DSM performance review of Masaya Solar across January 2026, covering revenue loss percentage, forecast accuracy and deviation exposure at 15-minute resolution.
DSM exposure across January 2026
Chart suppressed until a band breakdown exists for this site. Neither Masaya parcel has a PPA rate configured, so the settlement endpoint cannot produce one today.
Context
Masaya Solar settles under state DSM in Madhya Pradesh. On the monthly bill, deviation charges read as a broad, structural cost. In the interval data they are not: exposure sits in a limited number of high-variance days, and the rest of the month tracks close to schedule.
The question for the operations team was not how to forecast better in the abstract. It was which intervals were actually carrying the charge, and whether those intervals were addressable.
What we did
Day-ahead and intraday solar forecasts at 15-minute resolution, delivered into the existing forecast punching workflow, with deviation attributed per block so the month could be sorted by cost rather than by date.
Result
Across January 2026 the plant held revenue loss to 1.20% of generation revenue, assessed against the 5% deviation band — nothing charged inside 5%, 10% charged between 5 and 10, and full charge beyond 10. Reported forecast accuracy was 5.50% MAPE, and seventeen of thirty-one days carried some loss.
DSM economics
The applicable deviation settlement regulation is not recorded for this site.
Operational impact
- Variance drivers visible by day rather than aggregated into a monthly figure
- DSM exposure prioritised by the intervals that actually carry the charge
- Schedule optimisation targeted at high-deviation bands instead of applied flat
Next steps
Remaining exposure is concentrated in the high-deviation band. Ramp-event handling and intraday revision cadence are the two items that address it.
Talk to the teamMethodology
Window 1 to 31 January 2026, 2,976 fifteen-minute blocks. Revenue loss is assessed against a 5% deviation band: nothing charged inside 5%, 10% charged between 5 and 10, and full charge beyond 10.
The metric denominator, formula, meter source and applicable DSM regulation are not currently recorded for this site. Until they are, the accuracy figure above should be treated as indicative and should not be used in a commercial comparison against another forecaster.
- Blocks
- 2976 × 15 min
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